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Ninth city will enter the electronic box market


Abstract: For the economic recovery has been weak performance reasons, may everyone has their own favorite set of theories. However, there is one factor was that many people overlook, and that is: the computers, software and Internet-driven productivity revolution is gradually fading, but at the same time, there is no new thing surfaced, replace the productivity revolution economic growth "engine" status as.

Although the market has been touted in the latest technology startups that, but rarely have business to high-tech equipment or software major investment areas. Information processing equipment and software in the field of investment has hit its lowest growth rate in decades, equivalent to only a small percentage of growth and prosperity in this area during the late 1990s. 

In the 1980s and 1990s, high-tech investment was the main driving force of economic development. At that time, companies will have new equipment, software and research to invest a lot of money; in return, these investments will increase the output of enterprises. Today, however, has continued to electronic products led productivity growth in 60 years is slowly standstill. Today's high-tech investment slowdown, it means that tomorrow's economic growth accelerated. 

Robert Gordon (Robert Gordon) and other economists point out that the electronic revolution can bring benefits to human society has been almost drained. They believe that future productivity growth will slow already doomed fate, and this means that living standards rise speed will slow down. 

Of course, many components of the economy are beginning to take advantage of low-cost mobile computing and communications services, and some other areas - for example, biotechnology, energy, nanotechnology and robotics, etc. - in technological advances also may be like the electronic revolution as transformation of human society. 

But the problem is that the things that are coming, but never far from the water solution can not forthcoming. Whether it is from the last few years since the development of the situation, or from the sight of the current situation, high-tech investment has emerged as a significant downward trend. 

The more difficult question is yes, the United States in the field of basic research and development investment growth rate has hit its lowest level in 20 years, the possibility of a major breakthrough occurred in the United States, this means that the next is declining. Currently, the US intellectual property - such as software, patents and research - Inventory is growing at an annual rate of about 2.5 percent growth, while only half of the 1980s and 1990s. People are seeing today cutting-edge technology, there are many of them in that era was the invention created. 

Overall, the US economy out of crisis after 2008, business investment has been weak performance. Due to the slow growth in demand sake, most companies believe that investing is not an urgent task in the field of new equipment, software, or information processing and the like. Meanwhile, government investment in R & D in the field are also declining. 

Order high-tech investment growth hindered an important factor is that most products are not made significant improvements. In the 1980s and 1990s, every new product cycle represents a significant leap in speed and usability. At that time, the price of high-tech products will fall very quickly, thereby encouraging companies to take significant investment measures. 

But today, small changes faster chips and software can not play the same incentive. For example, from MS-DOS to Windows 3.0 leap is huge, but rarely have companies eager to adopt Windows 8 system, it is because Windows 7 is also very good. 

In today's technological world, most innovations have occurred in consumer goods body, which makes consumer goods become more interesting and eye-catching, but the overall economy and improve productivity take a share. 

JP Morgan economist Michael Feiluo Li (Michael Feroli) and Robert Mailman (Robert Mellman) in a research report that the slowdown in the speed of technological progress means, "The future will no longer be the original look . "During the late 1990s, productivity and labor force are growing rapidly, when the economy's potential growth rate of about 3.5 percent per year. Today, the potential growth rate has dropped to about half of the level. 

Demographic development trends indicate that the growth rate of the labor force is slowing, partly explains why the economy's potential growth rate is declining. However, the decline in productivity is also one of the factors for this result. Fees listed and Mailman noted that the current trend productivity growth rate of approximately 1.25% per year, equivalent to only about half of the 1995-2004 year period. 

Affected by the slow economic recovery process, can improve productivity in the technical field of investment have also been artificially suppressed. The most likely situation is that high-tech investment will eventually be rebound to some extent, but it will not return to the 1980s and 1990s levels. 

However, this should not be frustrated. In addition to computing and communications, and many other areas of technological progress is being made. Field of bio-technology, energy and robotics technical advances are sweeping the overall economy, as the electronic revolution had done before that. In the future, these technological advances will play a role in increasing productivity, improving people's standard of living again.

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